Prediksi Status Kelulusan Mahasiswa

Aplikasi web berbasis Decision Tree Classifier untuk memprediksi apakah seorang mahasiswa akan lulus (Graduate) atau belum lulus (Dropout/Enrolled) berdasarkan data akademik, demografis, dan kondisi ekonomi. Seluruh diagram dibuat dengan matplotlib.

Dataset: /home/ubuntu/data.csv 4424 baris × 36 fitur Model: Decision Tree Dilatih: 2026-10-19 22:57:57

Ringkasan Kinerja Model

Hasil evaluasi pada 20% data uji (stratified split) dengan 5-fold cross-validation.

Akurasi

81.47%

Test accuracy

F1-Macro

81.44%

CV: 83.52%

Balanced Accuracy

81.47%

Menyeimbangkan kelas

ROC-AUC

87.89%

Daya diskriminasi model

Distribusi Kelas Target

3 kelas asli → 2 kelas biner

Confusion Matrix

Data uji

Visualisasi Data

Diagram eksplorasi dan evaluasi model yang di-generate dengan matplotlib.

Perbandingan Fitur Numerik antar Status

Box plot per kelas target

Kurva ROC

AUC = 0.879

Feature Importance

Gini importance, 15 teratas

Pohon Keputusan

3 level teratas Decision Tree

Detail Model

Konfigurasi, laporan klasifikasi, dan aturan pohon yang digunakan.

Informasi Model

Decision Tree — scikit-learn

Hyperparameter{'class_weight': 'balanced', 'criterion': 'gini', 'max_depth': 6, 'min_samples_leaf': 10}

Data Latih3539 baris

Data Uji885 baris

Jumlah Fitur36

Waktu Latih2026-10-19 22:57:57

File Model/var/www/html/predictdropout.proyeksisfo.web.id/model_dropout.pkl

Classification Report (data uji)

                  precision    recall  f1-score   support

Dropout/Enrolled       0.84      0.78      0.81       443
        Graduate       0.79      0.85      0.82       442

        accuracy                           0.81       885
       macro avg       0.82      0.81      0.81       885
    weighted avg       0.82      0.81      0.81       885

Aturan Pohon Keputusan (export_text)

|--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) <= 4.50
|   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) <= 3.50
|   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (enrolled) <= 0.50
|   |   |   |--- Previous qualification (grade) <= 140.50
|   |   |   |   |--- Tuition fees up to date_1 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- Tuition fees up to date_1 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Application order_1 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Application order_1 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |--- Previous qualification (grade) >  140.50
|   |   |   |   |--- Previous qualification (grade) <= 157.00
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Father's occupation_9 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Father's occupation_9 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- Previous qualification (grade) >  157.00
|   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (enrolled) >  0.50
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (approved) <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |--- Scholarship holder_1 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- Scholarship holder_1 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) <= 2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) >  2.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (approved) >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (grade) <= 10.67
|   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (grade) >  10.67
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Age at enrollment <= 19.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Age at enrollment >  19.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) >  3.50
|   |   |--- Tuition fees up to date_0 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (approved) <= 3.50
|   |   |   |   |--- GDP <= 1.27
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Application order_1 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Application order_1 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- GDP >  1.27
|   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (approved) >  3.50
|   |   |   |   |--- Course_9991 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (enrolled) <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (enrolled) >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- Course_9991 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |--- Tuition fees up to date_0 >  0.50
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (grade) <= 12.88
|   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (grade) >  12.88
|   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) >  4.50
|   |--- Tuition fees up to date_1 <= 0.50
|   |   |--- Previous qualification (grade) <= 146.00
|   |   |   |--- Scholarship holder_1 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- Application mode_17 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Mother's qualification_19 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Mother's qualification_19 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- Application mode_17 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |--- Scholarship holder_1 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |--- Previous qualification (grade) >  146.00
|   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |--- Tuition fees up to date_1 >  0.50
|   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (evaluations) <= 8.50
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (evaluations) <= 6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Inflation rate <= -0.55
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Inflation rate >  -0.55
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (evaluations) >  6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (grade) <= 11.22
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (grade) >  11.22
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (without evaluations) <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (evaluations) <= 9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (evaluations) >  9.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (without evaluations) >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (evaluations) >  8.50
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (grade) <= 11.94
|   |   |   |   |--- Course_9238 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (evaluations) <= 7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (evaluations) >  7.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- Course_9238 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Father's qualification_37 <= 0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Father's qualification_37 >  0.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (grade) >  11.94
|   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) <= 6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (enrolled) <= 6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (enrolled) >  6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 2nd sem (approved) >  6.50
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (approved) <= 5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 0
|   |   |   |   |   |--- Curricular units 1st sem (approved) >  5.50
|   |   |   |   |   |   |--- class: 1

Daftar 20 Fitur Berpengaruh Terbesar

#	Fitur	Importance
1	SKS Semester 2 (Lulus)	0.7329
2	Biaya Kuliah Lunas	0.0419
3	SKS Semester 1 (Diambil)	0.0411
4	SKS Semester 1 (Dinilai)	0.0354
5	SKS Semester 2 (Diambil)	0.0259
6	SKS Semester 1 (Lulus)	0.0249
7	Nilai Semester 2	0.0200
8	Nilai Kualifikasi Sebelumnya	0.0173
9	SKS Semester 2 (Dinilai)	0.0153
10	Program Studi	0.0087
11	Biaya Kuliah Lunas	0.0074
12	Program Studi	0.0048
13	Urutan Pendaftaran	0.0044
14	SKS Semester 2 (Tanpa Penilaian)	0.0043
15	Penerima Beasiswa	0.0041
16	Usia Saat Daftar	0.0039
17	Pekerjaan Ayah	0.0019
18	Jalur Pendaftaran	0.0018
19	Pertumbuhan PDB	0.0015
20	Tingkat Inflasi	0.0013

Prediksi Individu

Isi data mahasiswa untuk memprediksi status kelulusan (Graduate vs Dropout/Enrolled).

Formulir Data Mahasiswa

36 fitur

ℹ Nilai bawaan diisi dengan nilai paling sering (kategorikal) atau median (numerik) dari dataset. Rentang yang diperbolehkan mengikuti data latih.

Data Pribadi & Registrasi

Status Pernikahan

Usia Saat Daftar

Usia mahasiswa ketika mendaftar (tahun).

Jenis Kelamin

Kewarganegaraan

Mahasiswa Internasional

Pergushi (Rumah Tangga Pindah)

Kebutuhan Pendidikan Khusus

Penerima Beasiswa

Menunggak Biaya Kuliah

Biaya Kuliah Lunas

1 = biaya kuliah terbiarkan, 0 = menunggak.

Jalur Pendaftaran & Akademik Awal

Jalur Pendaftaran

Urutan Pendaftaran

Program Studi

Kelas Pagi/Malam

Kualifikasi Pendidikan Sebelumnya

Nilai Kualifikasi Sebelumnya

Nilai kualifikasi pendidikan sebelumnya (0-200).

Nilai Uji Admission

Nilai uji admission 0-200; makin tinggi makin baik.

Latar Belakang Keluarga

Kualifikasi Ibu

Kualifikasi Ayah

Pekerjaan Ibu

Pekerjaan Ayah

Kinerja Akademik Semester 1

SKS Semester 1 (Diakui)

SKS Semester 1 (Diambil)

SKS Semester 1 (Dinilai)

SKS Semester 1 (Lulus)

Nilai Semester 1

SKS Semester 1 (Tanpa Penilaian)

Kinerja Akademik Semester 2

SKS Semester 2 (Diakui)

SKS Semester 2 (Diambil)

SKS Semester 2 (Dinilai)

SKS Semester 2 (Lulus)

Jumlah SKS semester 2 yang dinyatakan lulus.

Nilai Semester 2

SKS Semester 2 (Tanpa Penilaian)

Kondisi Makroekonomi

Tingkat Pengangguran

Tingkat pengangguran (%) pada tahun pendaftaran.

Tingkat Inflasi

Tingkat inflasi (%) pada tahun pendaftaran.

Pertumbuhan PDB

Pertumbuhan PDB (%) pada tahun pendaftaran.